Wonder Woman Box Office Tracking Proves to Be Wildly Unpredictable
It seems that a number of different box office analysts can't quite make up their mind about the debut of Wonder Woman, which hits theaters on June 2. Last month, early projections claimed the superhero adventure was tracking for a solid $80 million box office opening weekend, but today we have reports that project both a higher and lower opening for Diana of Themyscira. While most analysts have pegged Wonder Woman to open at $65 million, another tracking service projects a debut as high as $105 million.
This report from The Wrap reveals that Warner Bros. would be happy even with the low end of this box office projection spectrum, with the studio eyeing an opening weekend comparable to the debut of recent Marvel franchise openers such as 2015's Ant-Man ($57 million) or last year's Doctor Strange ($85 million). If the movie could surpass both of those debuts, it would be seen as a "major triumph," especially for the first movie lead by a female superhero, played by Gal Gadot, who isn't quite yet a household name like Ant-Man star Paul Rudd or Doctor Strange star Benedict Cumberbatch.
Still, the studio isn't expecting Wonder Woman to surpass the first two DCEU movies in their opening weekend, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166.6 million) and Suicide Squad ($133 million). While both of those movies fared well at the box office, albeit below expectations, they were both trashed by critics, which is an area where Wonder Woman may have an edge over her predecessors. Gal Gadot's performance as Wonder Woman was largely seen as one of the few bright spots in BvS last year, but it still remains to be seen how critics will spark to Diana of Themyscira's first big screen adventure.
Regal Theaters recently announced a Wonder Woman Ultimate Ticket, which will allow fans to see Wonder Woman in theaters every day during its theatrical release. While it remains to be seen how this will affect its box office performance, a much bigger issue is that it will face greater competition than both Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad, both before and after its launch. While Wonder Woman will only face the animated comedy Capain Underpants on June 2, it will debut a week after two highly-anticipated movies, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and Paramount's Baywatch on Memorial Day weekend. Then on June 9, it will face The Mummy reboot, with other heavy hitters like Cars 3 (June 16) and Transformers: The Last Knight (June 21) following.
Both Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad posted massive second weekend drops between 60% and 70%, a trend Warner Bros.' is surely hoping will be stopped with Wonder Woman, although that will certainly be difficult with this increased competition. Regardless, though, there may be less pressure on this movie, since DC Films president Geoff Johns recently stated that he couldn't confirm plans for a Wonder Woman sequel. Still, if Wonder Woman does open somewhere between this massive box office projection range, we could very well be hearing about a sequel put in development after its debut.