Avatar: The Way of Water continues to amaze audiences in theaters. Just like the first movie, this one is still in theaters, making big numbers at the box office, with hopes to surpass its predecessor while still earning the category of successful, nonetheless. The second installment of the Avatar series didn’t go unnoticed by critics as well, with over 77% critics' score and 92% audience score.
There are many similarities between the first and the second Avatar movies’ trajectories. Both were highly successful, and both achieved multiple nominations for important awards. Among them, the Academy Awards also noticed the world of the Na'vi and selected both films for many categories. Yet, when the moment of truth came, the first movie only took home three of the nine potential statues it could have won.
Thirteen years later, Avatar: The Way of Water is nominated in four categories. Though notably less than its predecessor, the motion picture still scores high among the movies with the most nominations, and sequels do not usually make it to the shortlist, so its merit is unquestionable. The past haunts the movie’s potential Oscar results, and we’re again in the face of a new disappointment for James Cameron and crew. Will history repeat itself? Let’s check up on the facts and predict some potential results.
The Best Picture Category Is Competitive
2010 was an interesting year for the Oscars. The ceremony, hosted by Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, featured diverse movies for the Best Picture category. Animated films, dramas, sci-fi; there was a little bit of everything for everyone. Yet, fuzz back then was between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, a war movie directed by Kathryn Bigelow (coincidentally, James Cameron’s former wife). The movie told the story of an Iraq War Explosive Ordnance Disposal team, especially the psychological consequences of their work. The Oscar went to Bigelow, both for Best Picture and Best Director, leaving Cameron empty-handed in these categories.
In 2023, Avatar: Way of Water is again facing a war movie. All Quiet on the Western Front is a German film based on the 1929 novel about World War I. The movie made it to Best Picture and Best International Feature Film categories, making it a favorite for the golden statue. Once again, Cameron’s luck might run short against a feature that denounces the most awful aspects of the historical wars, especially after a year marked by the conflict in Ukraine.
Furthermore, another favorite for this category is The Fabelmans. Directed by Steven Spielberg, the film is an ode to the cinema in a very personal story of a boy learning the ways of movie directing and is loosely based on his life. War and love for cinematography are two tough directions to beat, especially for sci-fi and fantasy films, which do not always win the Best Picture category. To complicate things, Everything Everywhere All At Once is also a sci-fi flick with a comedic and dramatic twist so, even though they are two very different films, the genres make it a less original contender in the category.
Does It Have a Better Chance With Fewer Nominations?
In 2010, Avatar went home with the Best Art Direction, Best Visual Effects, and Best Cinematography. It lost for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Score, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, and Best Film Editing. This year, Avatar: The Way of Water competes for Best Picture, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, and Best Production Design.
The chances for repeating the win for VFX are high. Not only has it already achieved it once but also the sequel is a definitive upgrade from the first entry. In terms of sound, the odds are good as well. The category is competitive as well, but Cameron’s crew has already proved to be meticulous when approaching the delicate sonorous environment in the Na’vi world.
Best Production Design could be a win for Cameron too. It is, in fact, the category formerly known as Best Art Direction. The contenders are the big question here, as it has to stand up once more to All is Quiet in the Western Front and Babylon, two films that also required a particularly demanding production design. In the end, it’s the Academy’s decision, but this award might be the turning point.
As stated before, the Best Picture category will probably count Avatar: The Way of Water in the runner-up list. Though nominated for fewer categories, the movie has a good possibility of winning two of them, it’s likely to win a third one, and can hardly win all four of them. So, ironically, history will probably repeat itself for Avatar. Sometimes, a win depends more on the perspective than the result itself. If the sequel manages to bring two or three statues out of four, the impact will probably be more positive than receiving nine nominations and losing six of them. We’ll have our answers in March during the 95th Academy Awards Ceremony, but we know at least that James Cameron has his hopes up this time.