Marvel made box office history last weekend when Avengers: Infinity War opened with $257.6 million, easily beating the 2015 record of $247.9 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Not that it would have mattered, but Earth's Mightiest Heroes faced no direct competition. And while that changes this weekend, with three new movies opening in (barely) wide release, the results will remain the same. The three newcomers, Focus Features' Tully, Electric Entertainment's Bad Samaritan and Pantelion's Overboard will all arrive in less than 2,000 theaters, paving the way for an easy repeat victory for Avengers: Infinity War with $154.5 million, which will set another box office record.
Our $154.5 million projection for Avengers: Infinity War's second weekend will be good enough to break the all-time second weekend record of $149.2 million, set by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in 2015. Star Wars: The Force Awakens only dropped 39.8% in its second weekend, paving the way for its second weekend record, and our projection of $154.5 million represents a decrease of 40% from its record haul. Given the immense nature of Avengers: Infinity War, which is simply so massive with so many implications for the MCU moving forward, that the re-watch value is quite high, and it may even pull off a more minimal decrease in the mid-30% range, but we won't know for sure until Sunday.
If it pulls this second weekend box office record off, then it should also be poised to topple the third weekend record of $90.2 million also set by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Globally, Avengers: Infinity War set another record with $640.9 million, easily eclipsing the $542 million mark set by The Fate of the Furious last year. While the international opening weekend tally of $382.7 million was second best ever to The Fate of The Furious, with $443 million, Avengers: Infinity War did so without the help of the second largest box office market in the world, China. When The Fate of the Furious set the international and global record last spring, $185 million came from China alone, nearly doubling the domestic opening weekend of $98.7 million. Avengers: Infinity War will open in China on May 11.
As for the newcomers, Focus Features' Tully opens in just 1,200 theaters, while Electric Entertainment's Bad Samaritan arrives in 1,800 theaters and Pantelion's Overboard debuts in 1,500 theaters. Those figures pale in comparison to the 4,474-theater debut of Avengers: Infinity War, the second highest rollout ever behind Universal's Despicable Me 3, which debuted in 4,529 theaters last summer. As of now, Tully has an impressive 92% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but no Tomatometer scores were given for Bad Samaritan or Overboard.
We're projecting that the top 10 will be rounded out by A Quiet Place ($6.1 million), I Feel Pretty ($4.2 million), Bad Samaritan ($3.9 million), Rampage ($3.8 million), Overboard ($3.2 million), Black Panther ($2.6 million), Tully ($2.4 million), Super Troopers 2 ($2.1 million) and Truth or Dare ($1.7 million). Looking ahead to next weekend, in Avengers: Infinity War's third frame, only two newcomers will arrive in wide release, Universal's thriller Breaking In and Warner Bros. comedy Life Of the Party. Take a look at our box office projections for the weekend of May 4 below, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy of Box Office Mojo.
|1||Avengers: Infinity War|
|2||A Quiet Place|
|3||I Feel Pretty|
|9||Super Troopers 2|
|10||Truth or Dare|