While early projections put Marvel's Black Panther between the $100M and $120M range for its opening weekend, the blockbuster doubled its lower projection for the three-day weekend ($201.7M) and nearly doubled the high end of the projection for the President's Day four-day holiday weekend ($235M). The movie will have a bit more competition this weekend, going up against the Warner Bros. comedy Game Night, Paramount's sci-fi thriller Annihilation and Orion Pictures' Every Day, although none of those movies are expected to put up much of a fight, and it's possible that Black Panther could set yet another box office record in its second frame.
Black Panther couldn't manage to break the all-time opening weekend record of $247.9M set by Star Wars: The Force Awakens, but there is still an outside chance it could break another one of Star Wars: The Force Awakens' many box office records, with an impressive second-weekend. Unsurprisingly, Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds records for the highest second weekend ($149.2M, 39.8% decrease) and third weekend ($90.2M, 39.5% decrease). While it may seem incredibly unlikely, we're putting Black Panther's second frame at $150.1M, a decrease of just 26% from its three-day tally, solely based on its incredible daily numbers it posted throughout the weekend.
While second-weekend drops of 50% are normal from a movie's opening weekend to its second weekend, it's also normal for rather sizeable drops between each day of a movie's opening weekend. Star Wars: The Force Awakens posted a record-breaking $119.1M on its opening day (which also includes Thursday sneak preview screenings) and it dropped a respectable 42.7% on Saturday, putting up $68.2M, while dropping just 11.3% on Sunday with $60.5M. Black Panther put up a strong Friday number of $75.8M, but it dropped just 13.1% on Saturday ($65.8M) and a tiny 8.8% on Sunday ($60M). While the actual daily numbers aren't in yet, it's already possible that the Sunday tally could be a new record, which is even more impressive considering Black Panther's Friday numbers were nowhere close to The Force Awakens. This also makes the potentially record-breaking second weekend more plausible, which could set up a huge run throughout February and beyond.
Of this weekend's newcomers, Game Night is slated to arrive in the most theaters, with an estimated rollout of more than 3,300 theaters, roughly 700 fewer than Black Panther debuted at last weekend. Paramount's Annihilation is slated to debut in roughly 2,000 theaters, while Every Day debuts in 1,650 theaters. As of now, there are not enough reviews posted for any of the new releases yet. We're projecting that Game Night debuts in a very, very distant second place with $14.6M, followed by holdover Peter Rabbit in third with $9.4M, Annihilation in fourth place with $8.3M and Fifty Shades Freed with $7.2M. Rounding out the top 10 will likely be Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($4.3 million), The 15:17 to Paris ($3.5 million), The Greatest Showman ($3.1 million), Early Man ($1.9 million) and Every Day ($1.4 million).
Also debuting in limited release this weekend is IFC's The Cured, Screen Media's Curvature, Hannover House's Death House, Parade Deck Films' Hannah, Epic Pictures' The Lodgers, Oscilloscope Pictures' November, Well Go USA's Operation Red Sea, Gravitas Ventures' Survivors Guide to Prison and The Orchard's The Young Karl Marx. Next weekend features just two new releases opening wide, MGM's Death Wish remake and 20th Century Fox's Red Sparrow, with Indican's Apocalypsis, Cinedigm's Dance Academy: The Comeback, Sony Pictures Classics' Foxtrot, Film Movement's Oh Lucy!, Strand's Souvenir and Great Lakes' Submission arriving in limited release. Take a look at our projections for the weekend of February 23, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy of Box Office Mojo.
|5||Fifty Shades Freed|
|6||Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle|
|7||The 15:17 to Paris|
|8||The Greatest Showman|