For a movie that may not have been made if not for leaked test footage, Deadpool is proved to be a box office gamble that has already paid off in spades. The superhero adventure has taken in $236.8 million domestically and $256.2 million internationally for a global total of $493 million, and it will likely cross the $500 million milestone sometime this week. Heading into its third frame in theaters, Deadpool will face three new releases at the box office this weekend, Lionsgate's Gods of Egypt, 20th Century Fox's Eddie the Eagle and Open Road Films' Triple 9. If the projections at Pro.BoxOffice.com are accurate, Deadpool should have no trouble winning for a third weekend in a row.
While Deadpool has had success beyond most analysts' expectations, its second weekend drop of 57.4% could mean that it may not have as much staying power in theaters. For example, throughout Star Wars: The Force Awakens' 10-week run in theaters, they have only posted a decrease of more than 50% once, and they have consistently managed to drop somewhere in the 30% range almost every weekend, which is surely a factor in its record-breaking success of $921.7 million domestic and $2.04 billion worldwide. Then again, Deadpool only cost $58 million to produce, so it is already wildly successful, even if it does continue to drop 50% or more each weekend. We're projecting that it will take in $22.5 this weekend, which should be more than enough to fend off these three newcomers.
After receiving a slew of positive reviews, Deadpool shattered the record for highest grossing R-rated opening weekend of $91.7 million, held for 13 years by The Matrix Reloaded. It also broke Fifty Shades of Grey's February record of $85.1 million, along with its four-day President's Day weekend record ($93 million), the record for highest-grossing R-rated comic book adaptation (300, $70.8 million), largest winter opening weekend (American Sniper, $89.2 million) and it became the biggest opening ever for 20th Century Fox, surpassing 2005's Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith record of $108.4 million.
Triple 9 is projected to open in second place with $12.5 million, followed by Gods of Egypt in third place with $11.5 million and Eddie the Eagle in fourth place with $7.5 million. Kung Fu Panda 3 will round out the top 5 with $6.4 million. The projections are certainly interesting, since the R-rated thriller Triple 9 is only expected to open in 2,000 theaters and it currently stands just below "Fresh" at Rotten Tomatoes, with a 59% score. Gods of Egypt is expected to open in 3,000 theaters, while Eddie the Eagle is also opening in approximately 2,000 theaters. While there is no RT score for Gods of Egypt yet, Eddie the Eagle is a critical hit with a 76% Fresh rating. It's possible that Triple 9 potentially out-grossing two PG-13 movies could be a by-product of Deadpool's unconventional success, as fans may be hungry for more R-rated content.
Triple 9 follows a group of thieves who plan to kill a young LAPD officer to divert the police away from a daring heist they're perpetrating across town. The title Triple 9 refers to police code indicating that an officer needs immediate assistance. The all-star cast includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Casey Affleck, Kate Winslet, Aaron Paul, Teresa Palmer, Gal Gadot, Woody Harrelson, Norman Reedus and Clifton Collins Jr.. John Hillcoat directs from a script by newcomer Matt Cook.
Gods of Egypt is an action-adventure inspired by the classic mythology of Egypt, where magic, monsters, gods and madness reign throughout the palaces and pyramids of the Nile River Valley. With the survival of mankind hanging in the balance, an unexpected hero takes a thrilling journey to save the world and rescue his true love. Set (Gerard Butler), the merciless god of darkness, has usurped Egypt's throne, plunging the once peaceful and prosperous empire into chaos and conflict. With only a handful of heroic rebels opposing Set's savage rule, Bek (Brenton Thwaites), a bold and defiant mortal, enlists the aid of powerful god Horus (Nikolaj Coster-Waldau) in an unlikely alliance against the evil overlord. As their breathtaking battle against Set and his henchmen take them into the afterlife and across the heavens, both god and mortal must pass tests of courage and sacrifice if they hope to prevail in the spectacular final confrontation.
Inspired by true events, Eddie the Eagle is a feel-good story about Michael "Eddie" Edwards (Taron Egerton), an unlikely but courageous British ski-jumper who never stopped believing in himself - even as an entire nation was counting him out. With the help of a rebellious and charismatic coach (Hugh Jackman), Eddie takes on the establishment and wins the hearts of sports fans around the world by making an improbable and historic showing at the 1988 Calgary Winter Olympics. The supporting cast includes Christopher Walken, Rune Temte and Tim McInnerny in director Dexter Fletcher's drama.
Rounding out the top 10 this weekend will be Risen ($6.2 million), The Witch ($5.9 million), How to Be Single ($4.1 million), Race ($3.9 million) and Zoolander 2 ($2.2 million). Also opening in limited release is Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny, which will also debut simultaneously on Netflix, a re-issue of Akira Kurosawa's Ran and Tere Bin Laden - Dead Or Alive and a pair of documentaries, IFC's King Georges and Gravitas Ventures' The Last Man On the Moon. It will be interesting to see how Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny fares in theaters while simultaneously streaming at the same time. This strategy didn't exactly pay off for Netflix's first narrative feature, Beasts of No Nation, which only earned $90,777 in a two-week theatrical run.
Looking ahead to next weekend, there will be four new movies hitting theaters, to kick off the month of March. Take a look at the box office estimates for this weekend, and check back on Tuesday for next week's predictions. Disney's Zootopia, Focus Features' action sequel London Has Fallen, Paramount's Whiskey Tango Foxtrot and The Other Side of the Door will all open in wide release. Arriving in limited release is Broad Green Pictures' Knight of Cups, the latest from Terrence Malick, Magnolia's The Wave and Strand's Mekong Hotel. Be sure to check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, but, until then, take a look at the projections for the weekend of February 26.
PREDICTED WEEKEND BOX OFFICE: