Captain Marvel is projected to earn $160 million domestically during its debut weekend. The low end of the projection places the first female-led Marvel Cinematic Universe movie at $140 million and the high at $180 million. The movie is already breaking pre-sale records, so the big projections aren't a complete shock. In Addition to introducing Carol Danvers, the movie is leading us into the future of the MCU and Avengers: Endgame, which hits theaters only weeks after.
Looking at past openings for the MCU, last year's Infinity War was able to command a massive $257.6 million opening domestically and Black Panther pulled off $202 million. This sets Captain Marvel firmly into the category of Black Panther, which was also predicted to make around the same amount of money during its debut weekend. Obviously, pre-sale tickets have already been bought by hardcore fans, but for the general public, critical reviews will have a big impact on the current projections. Black Panther benefitted from great reviews and word of mouth, allowing the movie to make more money during its first weekend.
Last year's Ant-Man and the Wasp took in $75.8 million during its first weekend at the box office, while the DCEU's Aquaman was able to pull $67.8 million. As for the March opening, the only real competition for highest grossing debut for the month is 2016's Batman v Superman, which took in $166 million and then Disney's live-action Beauty and the Beast with $174.8 million. At its high end, Captain Marvel can take down those record and could very well go on to make close to $1 billion globally when all is said and done. Again, the critics will more than likely have a pretty large part to play when it comes down to an epic box office run.
Another factor that Captain Marvel has going for it is the fact that it's the first female-led MCU movie. The DCEU beat them to the punch with 2017's Wonder Woman, and Marvel fans have been waiting patiently for the Carol Danvers standalone movie. Fandango recently reported that it has become the third best pre-seller in MCU history after Infinity War and Black Panther. Captain Marvel also takes place in the early 1990s, giving fans a look at the MCU that has not been seen before.
Reviews and word of mouth are going to be crucial to the sci-fi adventure's success. Luckily, the reaction to the first two Captain Marvel trailers and TV spots have been positive. Bringing in Samuel L. Jackson's Nick Fury is another plus for the project, but it's unclear if all of this and the lead up to Avengers: Endgame will be enough for the movie to live up to the MCU's intense box office reputation. Whatever the case may be, things are looking good for Brie Larson's first outing in the MCU. As for how well it will perform during its total box office run is another story. The Captain Marvel box office predictions come to us courtesy of Box Office Pro.