Deadpool 2 may not be able to match the levels of success that the first movie managed, if early box office tracking numbers are any indication. Deadpool didn't exactly come out of nowhere in 2016, but it did still take the world by surprise and wound up surpassing expectations on every front. Fox is hoping that lightning can strike twice, as Deadpool 2 is set to arrive in theaters on May 18. However, the early tracking numbers reveal that the sequel is likely going to earn less than its predecessor on its opening weekend.
According to early tracking estimates, Deadpool 2 is set to make $100 million on its opening weekend this May. There are few movies in the history of cinema that could consider a $100 million opening weekend at the domestic box office a disappointment, so Deadpool 2 is still going to likely be a huge hit for Fox. But that's quite a bit shy of what Deadpool did on its opening weekend in 2016. Over the course of a four-day weekend, Deadpool made a record-breaking $152.1 million, with $132.4 for its three-day total.
That means Deadpool 2 is expected to come up around $32 million shy of the first movie in its opening weekend. But let's not be dramatic, that's far from failure and it's likely that Fox never expected this movie to make more than the first Deadpool. There were several factors that simply can't be replicated which directly contributed to the success of the original. For one, fans had been waiting years for a solo Deadpool movie and the marketing campaign promised that it was going to be well worth the wait. Plus, when early reviews for the movie came back extremely positive, it only helped fuel the already raging hype fire that led to the massive opening weekend box office.
The other very important thing to consider here is that Deadpool opened in February of 2016. Black Panther has once again proved this year that February is very fertile ground, but at the time, there simply wasn't much competition for Deadpool. It was able to clean up domestically and internationally with little blockbuster competition, ultimately making $783.1 million worldwide. And that's without a release in China, the world's second-biggest movie consuming market. This time around, Fox has placed Deadpool 2 right in the heart of the summer movie season on May 18. That changes things.
With movies like Avengers: Infinity War coming out just a few weeks prior, and Solo: A Star Wars Story coming out just a week later, there's going to be a lot for moviegoers to choose from. With that in mind, $100 million opening weekend should make everyone happy. It's also worth mentioning that this is early on in tracking and that's proven to be somewhat unreliable at times in recent years. If the reviews for Deadpool 2 come back very positive, it could blow past that $100 million number rather easily. Word of mouth could be very important with this one. These tracking numbers come to us courtesy of Box Office Pro.