The 2019 Golden Globes Awards has clear favorites from a banner year at the box office and television. I'll break down each category by the expected winner, and who should win. It's pure conjecture who will actually win, but I will measure the expected winners by their percentages from goldderby.com, a website that tallies the choices from industry experts and critics.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Winner: A Star is Born, the fourth iteration of the classic musical is pretty much guaranteed. The film was a box office hit, with critics and audiences swooning over the performance of pop diva Lady Gaga. I thought the film was great, but think Black Panther or BlacKkKlansman was more deserving. The HFPA could make a statement here and not play it safe. Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman were edgier, barrier-breaking films. A Star is Born has already been decorated in previous versions. It's a longshot, but I hope the HFPA rewards originality, creativity, and diversity.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Winner: Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born, the pop superstar is an overwhelming favorite. She does a great job and deserves to win. Melissa McCarthy is my darkhorse pick. I wasn't a big fan of Can You Ever Forgive Me, but McCarthy was excellent. She's well liked by the HFPA, maybe enough for a huge upset.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Winner: Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, slightly edging out Bradley Cooper. Both Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born overperformed at the box office. Bohemian Rhapsody was criticized for glossing over Freddie Mercury's homosexuality. But everyone agrees that Rami Malek carried the film with his incredible performance. This will be the closest race. My choice would be John David Washington, but his odds are slim at best.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Winner: Green Book, in a truly solid field of competition. All of these films are great, but the critical consensus leans toward Green Book. Controversy has emerged over the veracity of the story, but I don't think enough to sway the vote. I loved Vice and Mary Poppins Returns, but would have chosen The Favourite. The film deliciously skewers English period costume drama.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Winner: Emily Blunt, her turn in Mary Poppins Returns is damn good. She seamlessly takes over the character from the legendary Julie Andrews, no easy feat. Olivia Colman's gout-ridden, spoiled, and bisexual Queen Anne comes in a close second.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Winner: Christian Bale, who is unrecognizable as Dick Cheney in Vice. I would be stupefied if he lost this category. The other performers are worthy, but not remotely on par with Bale.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Winner: Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk, a Hollywood stalwart finally gets her due. She delivers a powerful, emotional performance. I am fully behind her winning...but would have chosen Rachel Weisz. She's so underhanded and bitchy in The Favourite. Her dance scene still has me laughing.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Winner: Mahershala Ali in Green Book, the critics pick, should clear space beside his Oscar. Richard E. Grant has some support, but I would choose Adam Driver. He plays a Jewish cop undercover in the KKK. Driver is a tremendous character actor that is always overlooked.
The Rest of the Best
Best Animated Movie Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, no arguments here. Sony Animation finally gets a win over Disney. Best Motion Picture - Foreign Language Winner: Roma, the best film of 2018 is a guaranteed win. Best Director - Motion Picture Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma is a masterpiece, pure and simple. Cuaron is a supernova in a field of stellar competition. Best Screenplay - Motion Picture Winner: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, their brilliant script for The Favourite tops the experts and my list. Best Original Score - Motion Picture Winner: Marc Shaiman, his score for Mary Poppins Returns captures the magic and fantasy of the original. The experts and I agree. Best Original Song - Motion Picture Winner: Shallow, it's unfathomable that Lady Gaga would lose this category. Her "little monsters" would burn down the HFPA.