When the box office estimates were released on Sunday, it looked like Rogue One: A Star Wars Story had won for the fourth weekend in a row with $21.9, just barely beating the drama Hidden Figures, which kicked off its nationwide expansion with $21.8 million. However, when yesterday's actual figures were released, both movies flip-flopped, with Hidden Figures actually winning with $22.8 million, just ahead of Rogue One with $22.06 million. This weekend, both Hidden Figures and Rogue One will go up against three new movies, Paramount's Monster Trucks, STX Entertainment's The Bye Bye Man and Open Road Films' Sleepless. There are also three movies expanding with Warner Bros.' Live By Night, Lionsgate's Patriots Day and Paramount's Silence all going nationwide as well. While it may certainly be another very close weekend, with six new movies hitting theaters, we're predicting that Monster Trucks comes out on top with $22.6 million, with Patriots Day following closely behind with $20.8 million.
Box Office Mojo reports that Patriots Day will likely be released in the most theaters out of these six movies, debuting on 2,900 screens. While Patriots Day hasn't put up record numbers in limited release, it has been a model of consistency, dropping just 8.4% in its second frame, where it played in only 7 theaters, and actually increasing 29.1% when the extra day for the New Year's holiday is taken into account. Last weekend, its third in theaters, it remained in just seven theaters, in New York, Los Angeles and Boston, only dropping 29.1%. It has currently earned $870,217 in its first three weekends, but its grosses will get a big boost this weekend.
Still, even with Patriots Day's impressive platform box office numbers, and its critical acclaim (80% on Rotten Tomatoes), we're predicting that the PG-13 Monster Trucks will take the win over the R-rated Patriots Day. As of now, Monster Trucks doesn't have nearly the critical acclaim as Patriots Day, earning just a 24% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from early reviews, but it will open in approximately 2,800 theaters. There are not enough reviews on Rotten Tomatoes for The Bye Bye Man and Sleepless quite yet, but both of those movies are expected to open in 2,300 theaters and 2,000 theaters, respectively. The expanding Live By Night, which has not been a critical darling thus far with a 33% RT rating, will expand to roughly 2,700 theaters, while Silence, which sports an impressive 86% RT rating, will expand to 750 theaters. We're predicting that the top 5 will be rounded out by Sleepless ($14.3 million), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($12.6 million) and Hidden Figures ($12.1 million).
Monster Trucks follows Tripp (Lucas Till), a high school senior looking for any way to get away from the life and town he was born into, who builds a Monster Truck from bits and pieces of scrapped cars. After an accident at a nearby oil-drilling site displaces a strange and subterranean creature with a taste and a talent for speed, Tripp may have just found the key to getting out of town and a most unlikely friend. The Monster Trucks supporting cast includes Jane Levy, Danny Glover, Amy Ryan, Holt McCallany, Thomas Lennon, Barry Pepper and Rob Lowe.
Patriots Day is set in the aftermath of an unspeakable attack, as Police Sergeant Tommy Saunders (Mark Wahlberg) joins courageous survivors, first responders and investigators in a race against the clock to hunt down the bombers before they strike again. Weaving together the stories of Special Agent Richard Deslauriers (Kevin Bacon), Police Commissioner Ed Davis (John Goodman), Sergeant Jeffrey Pugliese (J.K. Simmons) and nurse Carol Saunders (Michelle Monaghan) this visceral and unflinching chronicle captures the suspense of one of the most sophisticated manhunts in law enforcement history and celebrates the strength of the people of Boston.
When three college students move into an old house off campus, they unwittingly unleash a supernatural entity known as The Bye Bye Man, who comes to prey upon them once they discover his name. The friends must try to save each other, all the while keeping The Bye Bye Man's existence a secret to save others from the same deadly fate. Douglas Smith, Lucien Laviscount, Cressida Bonas, Doug Jones, Michael Trucco and Faye Dunnaway lead the cast of The Bye Bye Man.
Sleepless stars Jamie Foxx as undercover Las Vegas police officer Vincent Downs, who is caught in a high stakes web of corrupt cops and the mob-controlled casino underground. When a heist goes wrong, a crew of homicidal gangsters kidnaps Downs' teenage son. In one sleepless night he will have to rescue his son, evade an internal affairs investigation and bring the kidnappers to justice. The supporting cast includes Gabrielle Union and Michelle Monaghan.
Live by Night is set in the roaring `20s when Prohibition hasn't stopped the flow of booze in an underground network of gangster-run speakeasies. The opportunity to gain power and money is there for any man with enough ambition and nerve and Joe Coughlin (Ben Affleck), the son of the Boston Police Superintendent, long ago turned his back on his strict upbringing for the spoils of being an outlaw. But even among criminals there are rules and Joe breaks a big one: crossing a powerful mob boss by stealing his money and his moll. The fiery affair ends in tragedy, setting Joe on a path of revenge, ambition, romance and betrayal that propels him out of Boston and up the ladder of Tampa's steamy rum-running underworld.
Martin Scorsese's Silence tells the story of two Christian missionaries (Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver) who face the ultimate test of faith when they travel to Japan in search of their missing mentor (Liam Neeson) - at a time when Christianity was outlawed and their presence forbidden. The celebrated director's 28-year journey to bring Shusaku Endo's 1966 acclaimed novel to life will be in theaters this Christmas. The supporting cast includes Ciaran Hinds, Tadanobu Asano}, Ryo Kase, Shinya Tsukamoto, Nana Komatsu, Michie, Yosuke Kubozuka and Issei Ogata. Rounding out the top 10 will be Live by Night ($11.9 million), Sing ($11.4 million), The Bye Bye Man $10.6 million, Underworld: Blood Wars ($7.6 million) and La La Land $6.8 million. Also opening in limited release are Freestyle Releasing's The Book of Love, Independent's The Crash, FIP's Ok Jaanu, FilmRise's Reset, Parade Deck Films' Saving Banksy, China Lion's Some Like It Hot (Qing Shung) and First Run's Vince Giordano: There's a Future in the Past.
Looking ahead to next weekend, Universal Pictures will release the thriller Split alongside Paramount's XXX: The Return of Xander Cage and High Top Releasing's The Resurrection of Gavin Stone. The Weinstein Company will also expand their McDonald's biopic The Founder into nationwide release, with A24's dramatic comedy 20th Century Women also expanding nationwide. Opening in limited release next weekend is Magnolia's Detour,Rialto's Panique, Sony Pictures Classics' The Red Turtle, Strand's Staying Vertical and FilmRise's The Sunshine Makers. Take a look at our projected top 10 for the weekend of January 13.