Sonic the Hedgehog has had a messy road to release, but the movie is set to arrive in theaters next month. The question is, will all of this craziness amount to a hit for Paramount Pictures? The early box office tracking numbers look decent, but this little blue video game icon is going to need long legs if it's going to make enough money to be considered a big success, assuming these numbers hold.

According to a new report, Sonic the Hedgehog is looking at an opening weekend of between $20 and $30 million. That's certainly not terrible, but for a movie with a production budget said to be in the $90 to $100 million range, that's not a guaranteed win either. Much of this is going to depend on how overseas audiences respond, and if the movie can hang around for several weeks at the domestic box office as other competition enters the fold. It's also a crowded weekend. Fantasy Island, The Call of the Wild, Downhill, The Photograph and Portrait of a Lady On Fire are all opening wide on February 14 as well.

Paramount is looking to capitalize on one of the biggest video game franchises in history here. But things haven't gone according to plan. When the first trailer was released, the internet lost its collective mind, and not in a good way, over the character's design. This prompted the studio to go back to the drawing board and completely redesign the Sonic character throughout the entire movie. A more recent trailer showcasing the new design was received much more positively and people seem to be more on board with the idea. Be that as it may, the studio still had to shell out a lot of extra money for all of that extra work.

Perhaps the closest, most recent example to look to the box office success of Detective Pikachu. That movie was quite a bit more expensive for Warner Bros., with a $150 million production budget, but it's a seemingly comparable video game adaptation. Ultimately, the Pokemon movie found its way to a healthy $431 million global box office total, including $144 million domestically. If Sonic the Hegehog can get anywhere near that, it will be a big success for Paramount. Especially considering how bad the marketing started out for this one.

Paramount, like every studio, is struggling to find franchises in an attempt to keep up with Disney. That means getting creative and taking risks. Sonic the Hedgehog seems to check those boxes, but if it pays off, the rewards could be well worth it. Jeff Fowler is in the director's chair and this serves as his feature debut. Deadpool director Tim Miller is producing. The human cast includes James Marsden and Jim Carrey, who is playing the evil Dr. Robotnik. Parks and Recreation star Ben Schwartz is voicing Sonic. This news comes to us via Box Office Pro.